The hottest two pronged approach ushers in a long-

Two pronged development of new energy vehicles ushers in a long-term mechanism

regardless of whether the reasons for the cooperation between Volkswagen and JAC interpreted by fans are reliable, one thing is certain, that is, the Chinese government will enforce the "double point system" in 2018

recently, the author wrote an article, and a friend commented that the deeper reason is to adapt to China's "double point system"; It is even said that Merkel hopes to implement the double point system in German cars late; Some friends said that the double point system gave China a say in new energy vehicles

on June 13, the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council again issued the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits of passenger vehicle enterprises, This method is consistent with the Interim Measures for the parallel management of enterprise average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points (Exposure Draft) released by the Ministry of industry and information technology on September 22, 2016: by setting two indicators (i.e. fuel consumption points and new energy points), it sets goals and mutual coordination mechanisms for fuel consumption and the development of new energy vehicles. It seems that whether the reasons for the cooperation between Volkswagen and JAC interpreted by fans are reliable or not, one thing is certain, that is, the Chinese government will enforce the "double point system" in 2018

what is the double point system?

the double point system refers to fuel consumption points and new energy vehicle points. In short, the double point system is that China compulsorily requires a certain proportion of the sales of traditional vehicles and new energy vehicles, and uses this method to "roughly" increase the sales of new energy vehicles, so as to promote the development of new energy vehicles and promote the energy conservation and emission reduction of the automotive industry, in exchange for the improvement of China's urban environment, Objectively, it may help independent auto brands

is the problem of the switching point between stress velocity and strain velocity

the fuel consumption integral is calculated by the average fuel consumption of the enterprise and the target value of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise. The new energy score is to calculate the actual value and target value of the new energy score according to the single vehicle score based on the endurance mileage, the proportion requirements of the enterprise's new energy score and the production and import quantity of new energy vehicles. If the actual value is greater than the target value, it is the positive integral of new energy vehicles, otherwise it is the negative integral of new energy vehicles

positive fuel consumption points are allowed to be carried forward and transferred in affiliated enterprises. The positive points of new energy vehicles are allowed to be freely traded and cannot be carried forward. The negative points of fuel consumption and new energy must be compensated and balanced within the year when the report is issued, that is, the negative points generated in the previous year must be compensated and returned to zero this year

carry forward system. Positive fuel consumption points shall be carried forward to subsequent years at a certain discount, and the carry forward period of validity shall not exceed 3 years. If the positive integral of annual fuel consumption is carried forward to the next year, it is calculated at 80%; If the positive integral of fuel consumption after 2019 is carried forward, it is calculated by 90%. If the actual annual fuel consumption is less than 6.9l/100km, the positive integral can be carried forward by 80%

turn 4. Components should be inspected regularly: let the system. The transfer of positive fuel consumption points can only be carried out among affiliated enterprises. Affiliated enterprises include the following three types: (1) domestic enterprises that directly or indirectly hold 25% or more of each other's shares; (2) Domestic enterprises that directly or indirectly own or hold more than 25% of the shares of a third-party domestic enterprise; (3) Foreign enterprises directly or indirectly hold more than 25% of domestic enterprises. The positive fuel consumption points accepted for transfer are only used in the current year and are not allowed to be transferred again

the simple understanding of the double integral policy is that the positive integral of new energy, as the supplier, fills the gap between the negative integral of fuel consumption and the negative integral of new energy of other enterprises through integral trading

BYD doesn't get as much as selling points.

new energy vehicles are the supply side of the point market. In the future, auto enterprises with a large proportion of new energy vehicle business will fully benefit from this policy. Enterprises with a large proportion of traditional fuel vehicle business and no support of new energy vehicle production will face greater negative point pressure

the original national provisions for the proportion of new energy points from 2018 to 2020 were 8%, 10% and 12% respectively. Recently, the China Automobile Association revealed that it would call for the proportion of points to be adjusted to 5%, 8% and 12% according to the opinions of auto enterprises, and allow the negative points in 2018 and 2019 to be postponed for one year. At present, the prediction is based on 8%, 10% and 12% standards, and the corresponding load at this time is the yield load PS. It is assumed that the proportion of points in 2016 and 2017 is 4% and 6%, and the output is replaced by the sales volume

in the next three years, the independent fuel vehicle brand represented by Great Wall will become a big buyer in the integral market. Due to their lack of strong new energy as support, and not enough strong new energy partners, and their fuel consumption pressure is also increasing, they will become the main buyers in the future new energy point market

independent new energy vehicle enterprises represented by BYD, BAIC and Geely will benefit from the policy of double point system. On the one hand, as the seller of the points trading market, points trading can produce good economic benefits for these car companies; On the other hand, they will become the target of many new energy integral market demanders. In addition, the pure electric production qualification may become a potential object of cooperation, alliance, investment and M & A between state-owned enterprises and multinational companies

it is up to people to plan and heaven to make things happen. The country's dual point policy undoubtedly objectively attracts independent brands such as BYD. For example, in the "marathon" of car sales, many brands of non new energy vehicles instantly added dozens of kilograms of sandbags, while BYD people changed a pair of light running shoes

yes, traditional cars will face many pressures, such as the increasing number of market competitors, the strong capital invasion of cross-border car makers, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales, and the application ability of intelligent interconnection; In addition to these market and technical pressures, at the same time, they are also facing the obstacles of less flexible internal systems and mechanisms, the path dependence of teammates, and the dilemma that it is difficult for ships to turn around

as new energy byds, the author hopes that it is not only power iteration, but also selling points to earn some money, but also respecting the laws of automobile production and marketing, benchmarking Tesla, Google, apple, and a series of iterative innovations in mechanism, system, marketing, etc., to form an ecosystem of R & D, manufacturing efficiency, brand operation, product marketing, and capital resource integration. I hope Wang Chuanfu Li Shufu and other independent brands can seize the opportunity of "iteration" of automotive development in the past 100 years, like China Internet bat, and really overtake by turning or changing lanes, so as to share the growing demand for "new energy + smart connected vehicles" in China's and even the world's automotive market