The contradiction of the hottest paper industry an

2022-08-01
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Contradiction and future of paper industry: who can laugh last in the cold winter

1) raw materials have become an obstacle to the development of the industry; Wood pulp is the main raw material for papermaking. Due to the shortage of raw materials (long regeneration cycle), a large number of wood pulp or high-grade waste paper have to be imported

2) the purchase of wood is seasonal and cannot be purchased as planned. There are complex settlement methods such as measuring cubic diameter class or absolute dry weight (after moisture deduction for miscellaneous wood or wood chips)

3) waste generated in the production process of the paper industry needs to be treated, energy conservation and emission reduction are required, and environmental protection treatment investment is large

4) the paper industry belongs to the midstream raw material industry and is a typical supply-demand enterprise. The downstream demand market has a great impact on its profits

5) polylactic acid (PLA) is a popular green high molecular material in the field of bio based and biodegradable research in recent years. In recent years, most of the products of paper enterprises have excess capacity, mature technology, low entry threshold and fierce competition, resulting in low industrial added value

6) the product varieties are relatively fixed, but there are many subdivision specifications. Except that the conventional products are produced according to the planned market forecast, other products should be produced according to customer requirements, which poses a severe challenge to enterprises with large machines

7) key consumables of the paper machine, such as filter, shall be replaced regularly

1. Check whether the verification of load sensor is standard

8) the production of paper-making enterprises is continuous, there are many and intensive equipment, and the task of equipment maintenance is heavy

9) due to the relatively short production cycle and great capital pressure, it is necessary to strictly control the delivery receivable risk

10) the procurement cycle of imported waste paper is long. In order to reduce the procurement risk, it is necessary to monitor the status of goods in the whole process

11) cost accounting is extensive, and the cost distribution of main raw materials cannot be accurately allocated to different products, resulting in large changes in monthly cost data and the lack of effective fine accounting methods. If all kinds of finished paper have to be pulped before production, it is difficult to accurately measure the pulp consumed by each subsequent process and calculate the cost of in-process products

12) water filtering in the paper machine, boot conveyor belt in the press, drying of cadres, etc. These are consumables of the paper machine. The single sheet price is hundreds of thousands or even millions, and the service life is between one month and half a year, commonly known as valuable goods management

it is precisely because the paper industry has the characteristics of high fixed costs and significant scale advantages that once the profit margin of the industry rises, companies in the industry will be tempted to expand production capacity. Therefore, the paper industry is always in a cycle of "short supply - capacity expansion - overcapacity - capacity removal - short supply"

before 2007, the paper industry was in short supply and the paper price rose; The economic boom in 2008 gave birth to the expansion of paper demand and the rapid expansion of industry capacity; In 2011 and beyond, as the industry's production capacity slowly exceeded the market demand, forming a serious excess capacity, the paper-making companies almost simultaneously entered a cold winter that will bring greater development space and new opportunities to the industry; In 2013, the industry finally entered the phase of de capacity, and the intensity of this round of de capacity is unprecedented: small paper-making enterprises slowly closed down, and the surviving paper-making enterprises almost stopped their investment in fixed assets

under the strict de capacity regulation, the paper industry has finally waited for its own spring since 2016. However, just as the rise in coal prices from 2015 to 2016 caused the downstream power plants to complain incessantly, the paper industry has come to the spring, but the downstream industry is facing a cold winter

story of spring: one hair touches the whole body

but "three decades of East and west": compared with last year, this year's paper price can only be described as cool. Up to now, this year's waste paper price has dropped by one third from above 3000 per ton. The price of corrugated paper also fell for more than ten weeks. Nine Dragons Paper, headed by Zhang Yin, the former richest woman in China, said at the performance presentation in September that the paper price would be raised in October. However, the fact is that at the end of the month, Tianjin Nine Dragons announced that the carton board and corrugated paper should be reduced by 3 to create a famous brand of China's graphite industry of 00/ton

in November, just the beginning of the month, affected by the sluggish double 11 peak season and the poor prospect of foreign trade export, the news of price reduction of box board paper, corrugated base paper and white cardboard came out. Among them, nine dragons Dongguan, Quanzhou, Taicang and Tianjin have collectively reduced the price of packaging paper per ton, which is widely believed that the market will usher in a new round of price reduction. Up to now, the national box board paper and corrugated base paper have fallen to the freezing point, and the tax free prices of some paper mills in Dongguan have reached the low level of 3000. As the year of 8 draws to a close, the price of packaging paper in China is becoming more and more fierce

the storm seems to have come a little faster

at present, the survival status of paper enterprises is that supply exceeds demand. Basically, the national elimination can not keep up with the increase of production capacity. Due to the earlier release of production capacity, the supply of some paper varieties is still far greater than the demand in the past two years. As the market for household paper and packaging paper is relatively good, the investment in new production capacity in recent years is very large. Now, the situation is also very pessimistic. Now that the situation is in full swing, the market is in complete panic, and the paper merchants are unprepared. In order to stop the loss surge, they are pushing the wall down. The industry is really changing, but it is not difficult to do business, but the logic and thinking of doing business should be completely changed

in this year's depressed market, small and medium-sized paper mills took the lead in inventory and shipment, and the price of waste paper fluctuated sharply, making paper enterprises unbearable. The more prominent problem is that the paper industry reshuffle is inevitable, and it will be suspended only after a certain number of paper enterprises and paper merchants are eliminated

the future of the paper industry: who can laugh last in the cold winter

as mentioned earlier in this article, many people can't remember the last time they wrote with a pen. They haven't read a paper book for a long time. When they go out by train or plane, they swipe their ID card gently after booking tickets. Even because of the widespread popularity of electronic payment, many people are used to going out without money

back in 1993, the lunar year of the rooster, the youngest president of the United States after World War II took office. In the same year, the United States officially declared the end of "Star Wars"

in that year, an elderly man wearing black frame glasses was arranged to visit the Boeing company in Seattle while visiting the United States. What amazed him most was that there were hundreds of people working in such a large design department, but they couldn't see a single drawing. All the work was completed by computers and networks

in contrast, the domestic design level at that time, just as the elder lamented when he returned to his old employer 16 years later, was still in the state of drawing on the drawing paper with a duckbill pen. If one was careless, the ink leaked onto the paper, and the whole drawing could only be scrapped. For China, where typewriters were still a rarity at that time, paperless office seemed to be a myth out of reach. This was the real gap between China and the United States at that time

today, the domestic design industry has already changed its guns and realized paperless design. Even in undergraduate classes, CAD has become a required subject. Anyone who draws with drawings will feel like a world away. This is undoubtedly a very small market for the drawing industry

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